Brisbane Incoming!

[JBT]

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml#skip

[pezchops]

O...chain up the dogs and batten the hatches

[Magpie]

It looks nasty out here in Purga.

[Vat]

Just took delivery of a new car. Was hoping to take it out for a play but I think it'll be staying under its cover in the garage next to the Jaffa tonight.

[Magpie]

Fizer at Purga

[zero00]

decaying now so doubt even a few drops but all under cover

[ManiacLachy]

Flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder, the humidity was right up, but I don't think we got a drop of rain! I was waiting for it to burst and cool things off a bit, but it never happened

[project.r.racing]

Nothing Northside. Had more rain on Sunday morning that Monday night.

It is starting to turn into the boy whom cried wolf with these storm warnings. We had some bad ones and the crazies jumped up and down cos a govt agency didn't give them enough warning about an act of god/mother nature. So now they give warnings for just about anything, even if not remotely close to being a storm. We have had 3 in 3 weeks that have just been light rain/drizzle.

Soon nobody will be believing them and then the crazies will jump up and down cos we made them believe wolf. Cannot win.

[Rolley]

You have to admit 28,000 lightning strikes made for a pretty impressive night on the deck though!

The met guys at work were pretty sure it was going to hit hard too, all their numbers lined up. Either way with this early heat some of these are going to be whoppers this summer.

[JBT]

So now they give warnings for just about anything, even if not remotely close to being a storm. We have had 3 in 3 weeks that have just been light rain/drizzle.

All the conditions were there. Stanthorpe got whacked. No one can accurately predict how quickly a cumulonimbus will dissipate or exactly what will feed out of it (hail, torrential rain, microbursts etc.) and exactly where/when this will occur before it dissipates - we were lucky these died quickly that's all.

[Vat]

BOM has been pretty gun-shy since the 1999 Sydney Hailstorm, when they had a few storm cells combine into a supercell south of Sydney out of the sight of radar. It suddenly appeared in Sydney's southern suburbs and laid waste to heap of rooves from Maroubra to Watson's Bay with next to no notice.

We had a crap ton of lightning strikes which caused minor power outages through the night, but dodged a bullet with the wind not coming up as much as it could have. We were more concerned about the potential event last Saturday afternoon - that one actually looked bad in modelling.

I'm in the Centenary suburbs and we very rarely get hit, especially from the west. They seem to track in from Ipswich, and somewhere around Redbank/Goodna they either head north east up through the mountains to Caboolture, or south east in a straight line to Beenleigh and Jacob's Well. We only got about 10 minutes of decent rain last night, plus one nearby lightning strike, but otherwise just a great light show. The only severe one we copped was from the south, the afternoon after that cell smashed the Saturday Kelvin Grove Markets three years ago.

They got storms/showers rated at about a 30% chance this afternoon. Our modelling suggests some rain this evening, heaviest Toowoomba/Gatton to the border, and a line from there through to Brisbane Airport, but shouldn't be enough energy for a storm.

This is some guy posting on the net, so take the prediction for what it's worth...

[Magpie]

Our modelling suggests...

"Our modelling suggests" sounds like an informed person posting on the net...

Who would be complaining if the storm was an extinction level event and we were not warned...

[JBT]

I spent my flying career dodging these bloody things day and night, with and without weather radar. They are extremely unpredictable.

One beast I'll never forget formed in front of me on the climb out from Darwin - it was up near Timor. I could not out climb its development rate in a Canberra - flew around it at 48,000 ft and the top was still a good 10,000 ft above me! Luckily, it was an otherwise clear day (i.e. it was not embedded or night) as the Canberra had no wx radar.

[zero00]

Vat

Check the first week of November 1995

I think it was Friday 3rd, Sunday 5th and Monday 6th your area got totally trashed. I worked at Wacol and on the Friday the sky was total green and weird - I chose to leave work whilst others said 'it's nothing' Every car in the work car park got trashed - again on the Sunday and the Monday again I left early and as I drive Centenary Hwy into the city radio reports were coming of cricket ball hail in the Centenary suburbs and I was freakin' watching the sky behind me! An NRMA Insurance Assessor was on Sumner Road Jamboree area in a new car and it was so bad he couldn't drive it

I find the first week of November is maybe the worst here, many fierce storms but many of those end as 'dry' storms but scare the begeezus out of you!

[Vat]

Two in twenty years isn't too bad. The one from three years ago was pretty similar - I was sitting on the couch and an EWM e-mail with the storm warning came through. I looked outside and saw a green sky. I'd only just figured out how to get both cars (Mirage and a C-Class wagon at the time) in the single in-house garage so got them both in. Apocalyptic hail ten minutes later that smashed windows and dented cars - we didn't lose any windows (must have come close, though) but the solar hot water got nailed. Cut a swathe through to Jindalee, Pullenvale and Kenmore.

Very wary if storms are heading up from the south - pretty rare, though.